The Stanley Cup Playoffs are formatted in such a way that at least one of the first-round series will feature two bona fide contenders.
This year’s bracket features a couple of slobberknockers in Round 1, but the most compelling in the best-of-seven is between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars.
Dallas is the co-favorite to win the Stanley Cup, but is a slight underdog to win this series against the Avs.
Do the bookies have this one right?
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Avalanche vs. Stars series odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Avalanche | -115 |
| Stars | -105 |
Avalanche vs. Stars betting preview
The gap between the Stars and Avalanche couldn’t be thinner, but the way these two teams is quite different.
Colorado runs on star power, with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar leading the way.
Speed and skill have long been the hallmarks of the Avs, but Colorado also addressed its biggest need at the trade deadline by shoring up its depth.
Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle and Ryan Lindgren have turned the Avs from a top-heavy team into a juggernaut that is deep at every position.
The Stars were built in the opposite direction. Always among the deeper rosters in the NHL, Dallas grinds teams down with its ability to roll four lines and play structured defensively.
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The biggest knock on Dallas was that it didn’t have enough star power, but the Stars tried to address that by bringing in Mikko Rantanen, a former 55-goal scorer for the Avalanche, in a trade with the Hurricanes.
Rantanen was traded to Carolina from Colorado in exchange for Martin Necas and Jack Drury earlier this season.
On paper, Dallas should have the edge in goal with Jake Oettinger standing opposite Mackenzie Blackwood, but the latter has been terrific since he joined the Avs from San Jose.
Avalanche vs. Stars pick
This is quite the matchup to handicap, but there is one number that stands out.
Since the trade deadline, Colorado has been a behemoth at 5-on-5, with a plus-19 goal difference in 19 games.
The Avs also boast a plus-10 expected goal difference and have created 28 more high-danger scoring chances than they’ve conceded in that span.
Dallas, which is more reliant on controlling play at 5-on-5 than Colorado, has a plus-7 goal difference at 5-on-5 in that span, but the Stars are in the red in both expected goals and high-danger scoring chance rate.
In fact, no team in the NHL has conceded more high-danger scoring chances since the trade deadline than Dallas.
Not only is Colorado worth a bet to win this series at anything better than -125, but it’s not the worst idea to back the Avs to get this thing done quickly.
The play: Avalanche -1.5 games (+150)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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